OOPS!! I Should Have Stayed With …

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OOPS!! I should have stayed with Chainlink! – Or whatever currency you just switched.

If you haven’t been there yet, it won’t be long. Someone you trust says, “XRP is going to double this month! Switch out your Chainlink!” There you go, transferring the money you have in Chainlink to XRP so it can double, and you know it. Chainlink goes up and up; XRP falls and falls.

Image result for seeing the future + royalty free

Experts Can’t See The Future

We trust some experts because they’re good at following trends and reading graphs. They’ve been around and their predictions make sense. But they’re not always right.

Recently, my advisor said to transfer my Chainlink into XRP. I did. We awaited the exciting moment when XRP’s value would double. Didn’t happen. First, it should have happened by the 7th of November, then by the middle.

There were a few promising burps of elevation from time to time, but mostly devaluations. So, yeah, it’s only the 14th. I’ll wait it out. Can there be doubt that when I put the money I have in XRP into something else, that XRP will skyrocket like Bitcoin in 2017?

Sometimes I feel like I’m just a dumb investor. My advisor isn’t dumb, but having me as his little ride-along is a curse to his otherwise savvy ventures. That does seem a little overly spiritual for such a mundane venture.

But what, exactly, makes these so-called experts worth following? What guides and directs their thinking? How often are they right on?

What Do These Experts Study?

Image result for crypto graphs + royalty free

Graphs

Yes, those up and down lines in a box that look like sharp mountains and treacherous cliffs. Someone like me sees things going down for a few days. My advisor zooms out and shows me the month and the year.

You’ll have things like Bitcoin that stay roughly the same for years. Slowly the value goes up little by little. You’ll still see impressive drops, but the broad trend is upward. Forward to 2017 and you see that it peaks magnificently, but then goes down. Yet still, looking at its lifespan, Bitcoin remains a promising investment.

There is this mountain road in Scotland. As you are driving upward you come to this strange little spot that slants noticeably downward. However, drivers have long noticed that if you put your car in neutral midway down the slant, their cars roll upward.

That’s backward! That can’t happen! What breach of natural physics is this? The little spot attracted the attention of geological experts. After careful studies, it was determined that the road went up so steeply because of the mountain terrain. Therefore, even though the road appeared to be slanting downward, it was actually still going up.

Why am I going aside into this little science lesson? It shows how we can rely too much on what seems – to the uneducated – to be painfully obvious. Yet we are wrong! Others know how to see the big picture.

Landmasses can teach us some basics of perception. But they don’t change much. Human trends do change, sometimes magnificently. That’s why even the experts can get it wrong.

Inside Information

There are groups of people, some quite large, who invest together. Say one of these huge groups plans on dipping into Litecoin after a certain value is reached. An expert gets wind of it and does some waiting.

As it looks like the condition is about to be met, the expert advises everyone to hurry and invest in Litecoin. However, they’ve just dug their own hole. The more followers this expert has the more people who suddenly invest in Litecoin.

Oops. Now the condition of Litecoin’s value dropping to this certain level isn’t forthcoming – too many investors. The large group sees the news is out and it moves on to something else.

Halving used to equate to a sudden boost in a currency’s value. Then the masses got educated about this fact. Right before the halving, investors pour their savings into the currency. The lessening of the coin’s production is offset by the huge fiat poured into it.

As more people see the value of investing in cryptocurrency, we see an increase in people looking to experts for advice. Now those experts can’t rely on the same formulae. What needs to change?

How To Guage Cryptotrends

Back To Graphs

Graphs show trends based on the value of the coin at particular times of day and month and year and decade. But graphs show the past and present, not the future. Studying graphs intensely can show what was going on in the world when certain ups and downs occurred.

If certain events in the world of fiat (government-backed) currency + a sudden shift in the power of a political party + these two countries going to war + an escalation in children’s rights all come to equal spikes in this coin’s value and drops in that coin’s value, we have a significant equation.

If like me, following graphs with such intense magnification of surrounding events is too mindboggling, we’ll leave that to the experts.

Keep A Sharp Eye On The Developers

I’ve mentioned before that I mine Pi, which is the absolute easiest of all currencies to mine. Still, why waste even that little modicum of effort if the developers, currently highly educated individuals, get sick of the effort and sell out to Columbian drug lords?

Okay, that’s extreme, but what if a few end up in jail, and they all turn into alcoholics with slews of restraining orders against them? Will the excitement make Pi’s value go up? To be honest, since it costs nothing to mine Pi, I’d probably stay with it just to see what happens.

Keeping an eye on developers means reading their tweets, following them on Facebook, reading the articles they post and staying glued to their website. I even do that with cryptocurrencies that I don’t mine or invest in.

Listen To The Miners

If miners start complaining that the promised rewards aren’t coming in, that is a very bad/good sign. Bad for the miners because without the rewards, there is no incentive to mine, which means fewer coins.

Then again, fewer coins make them more valuable to the investors. As I mentioned in another article, lost digital coins are not replaceable; if they get thrown in the incinerator with no means of recovery, they’re gone forever.

Right now the miners of Pi are saying “Join us!”. Seriously, go to the article and click on the link to mine Pi. It costs nothing.

If some miners are saying, “Stay away! We have enough miners!”, are they being greedy? Or is something else up? Are they warning you it’s not worth it? Ask around.

Share Your Ideas

What’s up in your world? Do you have secrets to reveal? Anything you’d care to ask or expose? We await your comments with open eyes!

26 thoughts on “OOPS!! I Should Have Stayed With …”

  1. Thank you for this post.  Sadly I’ve been there.

    I was into Bitcoin before it was famous.  For me it was about mining and trying something new.  I thought of it like SETI at home but using the computing power for money instead.

    Sadly, I got bored with it before it took off and cashed out way to early.  Lesson learned I guess.

    I’m not sure that crypto currencies are for me.  I tend to be impatient and move onto the next shiny object.  Following trends and knowing when to trade, buy or sell can be tricky.

    Maybe I’ll give it another shot.

    Thanks again,

    Scott

    1. Hi Scott! I’ve heard quite a few people claim to have made poor choices with Bitcoin. You’re definitely not alone. Pi might not be shiny but it’s free to mine if you want to give it a shot. Who knows what the future holds?

  2. I’m not a major in the investment world  by any means. However I found your post highly informative and many of your ideas made perfect sense. The trends of previous occurances can only be a guide and I think trusting your gut instinct is a valuable tool along with the obvious of keeping up with all that’s going on in the world. Amazing little read my friend. Thanks so much

    1. Thank you for the comment, Paul! I’m not a major in the investment world, either. I have learned that even the majors make mistakes, but they’re worth listening to.

  3. I have always been curious about the idea of crypto currency. Seems basically like the stock market but with the ability to use the “stocks” as currency. Do you think this is a fad or is this what all currency will eventually be down the road? Are you concerned about any security risks? I realize that it is supposed to be perfectly safe to send these crypto currencies back and forth, but seems like eventually somebody will be able to hack into it and take your money. I am still new to all of this though, so thank you for the help to understand this! 

    1. Thank you for stopping by, Travis. Crypto keeps getting more useful and more secure. Blockchain technology and digital wallets and vaults do much to keep the online currency safe from hackers and theft.

  4. Often it is advisable to stick with the experts. At least, they are called experts for a reason. They know something we don’t know on the field of crypto and I really value following them due to how understanding and easy they could be when explaining things out. But then, they are not always right as that reveals their downside as humans. No expert would just say it right and it would come so every time. Crypto volatility also sometimes is just too much that may lead to down. Pi surely is a good mining and I am still enjoying them, I just pray that everything turns well with them. Good post

    1. Thank you for the comment, Rodarrick! Experts definitely know more than I do. I’ve just learned that their humanity gets in the way of perfection.

  5. I invested in Bitcoin in 2017 when it was at $10k. The experts were saying Bitcoin was destined to reach $50k in a year because the quantity was limited. What happened is history. Fortunately I only invested about $1000. I still own it but it’s much lower. 

    Have you learned how to read the charts? I’ve nioticed that Crypto’s have long periods of stagnation with short periods of volatility. Do the experts wait till these volatile periods to trade? It’s hard to consider long term investing. 

    I wish you much success in your Crypto experience.

    Edwin

    1. Thank you so much for your comment, Edwin. My chart reading skills are highly limited. I look and make a broad observation, then I run it by my advisor. Sometimes he agrees, sometimes not. I’m just glad my advisor works for free. lol. He’s my son.

  6. Thanks for these tips. I am sure they are going to come in very useful. I can’t believe the experts make their decisions studying graphs.  This to me seems a cit like gambling. 

    However comparing graph to world trends and markets does make a lot of sense, as you can see what happened as graphs go up and down.

    Wouldn’t studying the financials of a company you are interested in investing in make sense to?  In this way you can also see how a company has been performing long term. 

    1. Thank you for the comment, Michel. I would question whether graphs alone could be ideal guides, but keeping an eye on the developers/company is a big must!

  7. Even the advisors with all their vast knowledge do not know everything. The fact is though that we have to depend on them to help us with our investments because even if they do not know everything, they do know more than us! I  believe the information presented in your postis ideally for beginners and they should heed it if they want to do well in Cryptocurrency

  8. I have only recently started using cryptocurrency.  I watched several videos on how to actually buy it.  They all stated how easy it was supposed to be but some of the sites it was very difficult. I did finally find a wallet where I could at least buy Bitcoin easily.  I love all the detail that you have put into the article.  If I were to want to get into mining where would I start?    

    1. If you want to start mining, I would strongly suggest PI. It’s the easiest of all, and if you find it’s too much to verify you’re still a human once daily by clicking a link – they send you a notification when it’s time – then you’ll know that mining other currencies is out of the question because they require much more effort. I’m glad you enjoyed the article. ๐Ÿ™‚

  9. Hi Cattington,

    Thanks a lot for the informative and helpful article. I got great insights from your article.

    I have invested in Bitcoin, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Dodge, Bytecoin, DigiByte, IOTA, Lisk, Monero, Nem, and Zcash in the past. To be honest, I have lost the money, only able to recover 30% of my capital and When Cryptocurrency is banned in the part of the world where I live I sold it all. Although I am aware of the importance and growth of the Cryptocurrency nothing can be done I had no choice except to sell all I have so resulted in lose.

    Although I invested around $1000 it’s a big money for me since I am from a middle-class. To be honest without knowing more about Cryptocurrency and not having proper knowledge I invested in it because of the hype and unrealistic claims.

    The information you shared about graphs and the video you embedded is an eye-opener to me. Your article certainly made me think more on the subject.

    Going forward keeping an eye on developers and listening to the miners is going to be the rule of thumb. I did some search on Pi and the information you shared about Pi is a double confirmation for me. I hope soon the Govt will open the market for Cryptocurrency.

    Thanks again for the valuable advise you have provided in this helpful article and there is no doubt it’s going to be a greater help for many.

    1. Thank you so much, Paul, for the details you provided. I’m glad you enjoyed the article. It’s just too bad a government would ban crypto! Even China is in on it. I hope you soon have the opportunity to invest again. It’s fun if you don’t go crazy with all you have. Best wishes!

  10. Staying up and making the progress or following experts and failing, both may have implications and that is the reason I will always prefer to just stick to my analysis while I blend the experts opinions too. This is a great one that I learned well on. Thank you for sharing this post with us all. for real, I really learned some simple things that I know would prove cogent with time

    1. Thank you for stopping by, Shelley! I’m glad you enjoyed the article. It’s important to see what the experts are doing, but we must analyze several at a time, I think.

  11. Very interesting one here and worthy of reading. WOW! some raw instances you have drawn your illustrations from and I agree that the experts cannot see the future and sometimes we should exercise caution while following them blindly. Not everything they say is right or will be right but the only difference is that they have higher chances of making the right calls than we could ever have. Thanks for sharing this here

  12. Hi, I have been dabbling with cryptocurrency for years now and have come to the conclusion that you shouldn’t invest more than your willing to lose. That said I have also learned that HODL is probably the best way to go and that having a diversified portfolio is the most ideal. There are sites like Trade Genius that have a great track record for binary trading etc. and have very good courses to learn all about trading as well.

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